From Pilot to Scale: Determinants of Successful Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and Automation Adoption in Supply Chain and Fulfillment Operations

Abstract

Artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation offer substantial promise for supply chain and fulfillment operations, yet a large share of adoption initiatives stall after promising pilots and never reach enterprise scale, a pattern often described as pilot purgatory. This paper develops a conceptual framework that explains the determinants separating firms that successfully scale these technologies from those whose initiatives remain trapped at the pilot stage. Integrating the technology-organization-environment framework, the diffusion of innovations, the technology acceptance and unified acceptance traditions, absorptive capacity and dynamic capabilities, and sociotechnical systems theory, the framework organizes adoption determinants into three established contexts, technological, organizational, and environmental, and specifies four cross-cutting enabling conditions that are especially decisive for scaling in operational settings: data readiness and integration, workforce and change capability, systems and process integration, and adoption governance. The framework distinguishes the pilot stage from the scaling stage and argues that the determinants of a successful pilot differ from the determinants of successful scaling, which explains why pilots frequently succeed while scaling fails. It further links successful scaling to operational and resilience outcomes, including cost, service, flexibility, and robustness to disruption, thereby connecting technology adoption to supply chain competitiveness. The framework is expressed as a set of testable propositions, illustrated through hypothetical adoption scenarios in fulfillment and logistics, and translated into implications for managers, technology providers, and policymakers concerned with industrial competitiveness and supply chain resilience. A research agenda for empirical validation is outlined. The contribution is a transferable, theory-grounded account of why operational technology adoption so often stalls and what operational capabilities enable it to scale.